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COVID-19 and the Obvious

Copyright © July 1, 2020 by Robert Wayne Atkins, P.E.
All Rights Reserved.

The following is not medical advice nor is it a medical recommendation.
Please consult a licensed medical practitioner to have your medical questions answered.

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Introduction

The coronavirus (COVID-19) has been a worldwide public health hazard since early March of 2020.

It is now July 1, 2020 and enough information has been collected on this virus to make the following very general observations:

1. The virus is extremely contagious.
   
2. If several people occupy the same space with an infected person then almost all of those people will become infected with the virus.
   
3. In some areas the increase in the number of new cases is overwhelming the medical facilities in those areas.
   
4. There is no known natural immunity to the virus.
   
5. The virus can infect anyone regardless of race, religion, age, gender, or geographical location.
   
6. The virus can infect doctors, nurses, policemen, farmers, construction workers, plumbers, lawyers, restaurant employees, truck drivers, maintenance mechanics, politicians, engineers, criminals, factory workers, dentists, teachers, delivery people, bankers, the unemployed, electricians, military people, drug dealers, pilots, computer programmers, and everyone else that you can think of.
   
7. The virus has a higher death toll than any type of known flu.
   
8. People who have become infected with the virus have said that the virus is more painful than any other medical problem they have ever had.
   
9. A person can become infected with COVID-19 more than once, just like a person can get the flu more than once.
   
10. A person who has actually been infected with the virus and who has survived does not want to get the virus again for two reasons:
    a. The person knows exactly how painful the virus is and the person does not want to experience that amount of pain ever again.
    b. The person knows their body is now in a weakened condition and that the virus will probably kill them if they get the virus again.
    

Since this is a "new" virus the worldwide medical community does not have any previous experience with it. A variety of different treatments are currently being experimented with but there is not yet a consensus of agreement on the best way to deal with COVID-19.

The 1918 "Spanish Flu" Influenza Pandemic is the only recent worldwide pandemic with which some type of comparison may or may not be appropriate. The "Spanish Flu" Influenza Pandemic began in February of 1918 and it lasted until April of 1920 (about two years). Historical information about this flu can vary based on the source of the information. In the early part of the year 1918 most nations censored the truth about this flu in their newspapers in order to avoid mass hysteria. (Is it possible that some governments in the year 2020 are not being entirely truthful about the impact of the COVID-19 virus in their countries?) In 1918 the Spanish government allowed its newspapers the freedom to report the truth and therefore it appeared to the rest of the world that the flu had hit Spain harder than any other nation on the face of the earth. That is how the flu got the name of "Spanish Flu." However, the flu impacted people everywhere in exactly the same way. Most estimates are that approximately 500 million people worldwide came down with the flu, or about 1/3 of the worldwide population of 1918, and somewhere between 50 million to 100 million of those people died. In other words, between 10% to 20% of the people who caught the flu eventually died. It should be mentioned that the "Spanish Flu" did not just go away. It stopped when people stopped spreading the flu to one another and this only happened after everyone with the flu either died or got well. When there were no more "new" carriers of the "Spanish Flu" then life began to gradually return to normal, and the people who survived gradually began leaving their homes and returning to their previous jobs.

On July 1, 2020 the "official" estimated death toll for COVID-19 is approximately 5%. However this estimate is based on the total number of deaths compared to the total number of reported cases of COVID-19. The obvious shortcoming of this estimate is that the 5% death rate includes everyone who has been infected and an overwhelming number of the people who have been infected still have the virus and they have not yet recovered or died. Therefore the actual death toll will be a lot higher than 5% once the fate of the currently infected people becomes known.

As an example let's assume that a scientific experiment is conducted and 100 rats are injected with a disease at the same time. At the end of one week 5 rats have died and 15 rats have completely recovered. The other 80 rats are still sick. If the 5 dead rates are compared to the 100 rats that were infected then a "false" statement could be made that the death rate is 5%. However, the fate of the 80 rats that are still sick is not yet known. This experiment needs to be allowed to continue until the fate of the 80 sick rats is known. If 25 more rats eventually die and 55 more rats completely recover then it will now be possible to calculate an estimate of the death toll. In this experiment a total 30 rats died and 70 rats recovered. Therefore the death toll for this disease on rats would be 30%.

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Complacency or Vigilance

If you have been shopping recently then you have probably noticed that some shoppers are not wearing any type of face covering. And you have probably noticed that some shoppers are wearing a face mask, eye protection, and disposable vinyl gloves. In your opinion which of these two groups of people do you think will have the best chance of not catching COVID-19?

Just because you personally have not yet caught the COVID-19 virus does not mean that you are immune to it. And it does not mean that the virus is a hoax. The COVID-19 virus is real. It is infecting more and more people every day. And it is killing people every day.

Each one of us will need to individually decide how we will respond to COVID-19. There are two basic strategies as follows:

1. Complacency: Complacency is the state of being satisfied with things the way they are now. A person who is complacent does not see any reason to do anything different from what they have been doing in the past because what they have been doing in the past has been successful for them.
   
   
2. Vigilance: Vigilance is the state of being alert, observant, and cautious. A person who is vigilant attempts to identify and avoid potential threats to their future happiness and well-being. This type of person will adjust their behavior to maximize the chance of enhancing and improving their future while simultaneously minimizing the chance of endangering their future.
   

Let's look at a simple example of how the above two strategies could be implemented based on what a person eats each day.

But first it is important to mention the fact that a person who has just been infected with the COVID-19 virus may not have any of its symptoms for a few days. During this time the person may not even be aware that he or she has COVID-19.

1. Restaurant Food and Beverages: A person with COVID-19 could prepare (or serve) food and drinks in a restaurant. Even if the person is wearing a face mask, and regularly washes his or her hands or wears disposable vinyl gloves, the person is still capable of spreading COVID-19. If the person touches their face or eyes, or scratches their nose or ear or neck, then the virus could be transferred to the outside of their hands or gloves. When the person touches the food, or plates, or cups then the virus could be transferred to those things. Anyone who touches those things, or who eats the food or drinks the beverages, could then be exposed to the virus.
   
2. Fresh Meat and Fish: A person with COVID-19 could prepare fresh meat, or fish, and package it for sale to customers. The virus could then be on that fresh meat or fish. However, if the meat or fish is eventually cooked so that its internal temperature gets high enough to kill the virus, then the cooked food will be safe to eat.
   
3. Canned Foods: Fresh food is put into a can and then the can is sealed. Then the can is heated and the food is cooked inside the can. After the can cools down then a label is attached to the can. Canned food has a very high probability of being safe to eat because the food was "sterilized" when it was cooked inside the can.
   
4. Frozen Foods: I do not know if freezing kills the COVID-19 virus. However, if the frozen food is cooked so that its internal temperature gets high enough to kill the virus, then the cooked food will be safe to eat.
   

Based on the above information we can now summarize the difference between complacency and vigilance:

1. A complacent individual will continue to eat and drink at their favorite restaurants.
   
2. A vigilant individual will only eat and drink at their own home or at the home of another person who they know is also vigilant. And they will only eat food that has been properly cooked to neutralize any potential COVID-19 virus that may have been on the food.
   

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How Pandemics Kill People

Historically pandemics (epidemics) have killed people in the following three ways:

1. Sickness: The disease, or plague, or virus kills a lot of people. Some of the people who survive may be in a compromised state of health for the remainder of their lives.
   
2. Starvation: The pandemic completely disrupts normal commerce. Production of food, and the distribution of food, are significantly decreased. Food becomes extremely scarce and food becomes unaffordable except to the extremely wealthy and to the people who have control over the food. Famine kills a lot of people. Some of the people who barely survive the famine will be in a compromised state of health for the rest of their lives.
   
3. Lawlessness: The pandemic disrupts the normal judicial system. Local law enforcement becomes difficult or non-existent. In order to survive a lot of people result to violence in order to obtain the food and supplies they need. This includes the normal criminal element of society and the previously law-abiding people who will starve to death if they don't steal what they need to survive. During previous pandemics honest people have had to personally defend their own property and their families if they wanted to survive. (Note: The recent civil unrest in the United States of America has happened at one of the worst possible times in the history of the USA. Almost everyone of every racial group will now be more suspicious of anyone and everyone who is not in their own racial group, including American Indians, African Americans, Asian Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Whites. This may cause some really serious problems in the not too distant future.)
   

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How to Survive COVID-19

If you and your family desire to survive the COVID-19 virus then you will need to be prepared for each of the following:

1. Sickness: Adopt a vigilant strategy. Wear some type of face mask when you leave your home. If possible, wear disposable vinyl gloves. When you return home remove your gloves, put them inside a plastic sandwich bag, seal the bag, and toss it in the trash can. If you don't have gloves then wash your hands and exposed arms thoroughly. Remove your clothes at the entrance to your home and put them in a plastic garbage bag until they can be washed. (Note: After you have washed your clothes and also dried them inside a hot air clothes dryer then the dryer heat should neutralize any COVID-19 virus that may still be clinging to your clothes after washing. Or if your clothes are not soiled in any way because you only wore them briefly then it may be possible to simply toss your clothes into the hot air clothes dryer and allow it to neutralize any COVID-19 virus that may be on your clothes.) Immediately after you remove your clothes you should take a hot shower and completely wash your body and shampoo your hair. Then put on some clean clothes. If it is possible, stay a reasonable distance away from the people you love. If feasible, do without the hugs and kisses you would normally share with your other family members. You don't know if you may have caught the virus and you may not know for several days so use good judgment during this short wait-and-see time period.
   
2. Starvation: Prepare for the worst but hope and pray for the best. Remember that the Spanish Flu Influenza Pandemic lasted for about two years and that it infected approximately 1/3 of the world's population which included farmers and delivery people. When people eventually realized how serious the Spanish Flu really was almost everyone began staying home and they would not leave their home unless there was some type of life-threatening emergency. Therefore now is the time that you should be purchasing as much "long shelf life food" that you can afford and that your family enjoys eating.
   
3. Lawlessness: Please remember that moral values and family values were significantly higher in 1918 than they are in the year 2020. In the year 2020 an overwhelming number of people believe it is okay to do anything they want, and to ignore any law they desire, as long as they don't get caught. People have been very gradually but systematically "brain washed" by watching movies and playing video games and many people today believe that violence is acceptable if it gets them what they want. You must be intellectually and emotionally prepared to defend yourself against any violence that may be directed at you and/or your family.
   

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Some Affordable Foods with Long Shelf Lives

Most of us have a very limited amount of money to invest in food. This is especially true for many senior citizens who have to survive on their monthly social security checks. It is also true for those families that have to survive on their monthly welfare checks.

The true value of your food is not based on its cost, or the number of cans of food you have, or the weight of the food you have, or even the type of food you have. The value of your food is measured by how many calories your food has, and how much nutrition your food has. You can find the calorie and nutrition information on the label attached to the can, box, or bag of food.

During a famine the food you eat may not contain all the nutrition, vitamins, and minerals your body needs to remain healthy. Therefore it is a good idea to buy a reasonable supply of some good daily multivitamin tablets in addition to your emergency food. Some of the vitamins and minerals in a daily multivitamin tablet may help reduce the chance of your catching the COVID-19 virus. If you should become infected with COVID-19 then those same vitamins may help your immune system expel the virus from your body.

Depending on where you live you may discover your best food values are at Costco, or Sam's Club, or Walmart. Stores that sell food in "case quantities" would be a good place to shop if one of these stores is within a reasonable distance of where you live and if you can afford the price of a "case of food."

At the current time Walmart stores are located almost everywhere. And on July 1, 2020 Walmart has the lowest prices on most food items. Their "Great Value" brand foods are an excellent value and they are usually extremely high quality food items.

Walmart allows you to shop inside their store and select and buy the things you desire. Or you may place an order with their store and one of their "order pickers" will collect your food items for you. You then have three options for taking possession of your food:

1. Just Inside the Store: There is a pickup area just inside one of the doors and you can pickup your food just inside the store if you desire.
   
2. Curb Service: Park in one of the special designated parking spaces, call the store on your cell phone, and a store employee will bring your food to you and transfer it into the trunk of your car.
   
3. Home Delivery: You may live in an area that is serviced by "Walmart's Home Delivery Service" and Walmart may deliver your food order to your home.
   

Some very affordable foods that have a long shelf life are white rice, beans, dry pasta noodles, oatmeal, canned vegetables, canned fruit, and canned meats and fish. On July 1, 2020 Walmart has the lowest prices on their "Great Value" brand of these food items when compared to any other national brand, store brand, or generic brand. And the quality of most of the "Great Value" foods is excellent. I suggest that you buy one can or container of each of the "Great Value" foods and serve them to your family. If you family approves then you can buy additional quantities based on what you can afford.

White Rice, Long Grain, Enriched (Great Value Brand)
1,600 Calories per Dry Pound

Size	Cost Per Bag	Total Calories Per Bag	Cost Per Calorie	Days of Food for 1 Person
5 Pounds	$ 2.48	8,000 Calories	$ 0.00031 Per Calorie	6.7 Days
10 Pounds	$ 4.32	16,000 Calories	$ 0.00027 Per Calorie	13.3 Days
20 Pounds	$ 8.48	32,000 Calories	$ 0.000265 Per Calorie	26.7 Days

Dry Pinto Beans (Great Value Brand)
1,300 Calories per Dry Pound

Size	Cost Per Bag	Total Calories Per Bag	Cost Per Calorie	Days of Food for 1 Person
1 Pound	$ 1.14	1,300 Calories	$ 0.00088 Per Calorie	1.08 Days
2 Pounds	$ 2.24	2,600 Calories	$ 0.00086 Per Calorie	2.17 Days

The above prices were current as of July 1, 2020.
The above "Days of Food" are based on 1,200 calories per day which is the minimum number of calories needed per day by the human body to maintain all of its normal functions. However, a diet of 1,200 calories per day will usually result in the gradual loss of weight for most people.
The above "Days of Food" is based on eating only the one food item in the above table each day. This is not recommended. However, this is a good "statistic" because it can help you evaluate the "food value" of different foods and avoid investing money in food that has almost no calories or nutrition.

Additional detailed food information is available on my website at the following links:

A 30-Day Emergency Food Supply.
An Affordable One-Year Emergency Food Supply and a Really Cheap One-Year Emergency Food Supply.

Buying emergency food is an investment and it is not a waste of money. If you purchase food with a long shelf life that your family really enjoys eating then your family will be gradually eating that food with the passage of time.

And if food should become scarce or very expensive due to the COVID-19 virus then your family will still have food to eat because you will have purchased and stored your food at a time when most foods were still widely available and reasonably priced. And you will be able to use whatever money you have in the future in a more productive manner based on what you need at that time instead of having to spend all of your money on a trivial amount of poor quality food that your family has to choke down because they don't like the taste of it.

If the COVID-19 virus seriously disrupts the food supply network then it is also possible that no food will be available, or you won't be able to afford whatever food is available, and if that happens then your family may starve to death. You can avoid this possible future by purchasing a reasonable amount of emergency food now.

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Conclusion

As of July 1, 2020 there is still time to take positive action to help your family survive the potential devastation that may be caused by the COVID-19 virus.

It is up to you to make the decision on how you will invest your time and your money.

Respectfully,
Grandpappy.

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Grandpappy's e-mail address is: RobertWayneAtkins@hotmail.com